[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 28 10:26:33 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Region 1149(N16W90)
produced two C1 flares that respectively peaked at 1201 and
2003 UT. A Type II radio sweep has also been reported at 1208UT
with an estimated speed to 901 km/s. Solar wind speed varied
between 280 and 320 km/s and the Bz component of IMF varied
between +/-5 nT during most parts of the UT day today. Very low
to low levels of solar activity may be expected on 28 January
as region 1149 rotates off the visible solar disk. Very low
solar activity may be expected on 29 and 30 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11211011
Darwin 4 21211112
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 3 11211021
Canberra 2 00201011
Hobart 2 01211011
Casey(Ant) 8 23322121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1110 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 3 Quiet
29 Jan 3 Quiet
30 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at
quiet levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed
on most locations today. Continued very low to low levels of
solar activity seems to be the reason behind this as less
ionising radiation is reaching the ionoshere. Nearly similar
HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days as no
significant variation to the ionospheric conditions is
expected during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan 1 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
29 Jan 1 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
30 Jan 1 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed
in the Aus/NZ regions today. Continued very low to low levels
of solar activity seems to be the reason behind continued
depressions in MUFs as less ionising radiation is reaching
the ionosphere. Nearly similar conditions may be expected in
this region for the next three days as no significant variation
to the ionospheric conditions is expected during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 308 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 36700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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