[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 22 10:36:24 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: New region 1149 (N18W05) was the source of multiple
sub-flare events while this region and 1147 (N24W07) produced
a number of C-class events, the largest being a C3.3 at 0417
UT from 1149. The proximity of the two regions and the rapid
growth of 1149 suggests further C-class events are likely with
the possibility of M-class events. STEREO images indicate at
least one Earth directed CME. ACE data show the north-south IMF
ranged between +4 to -5 nT with the solar wind ranging from 360
to 440 km/s. Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly
disturbed on days one and two due to the effects of a coronal
hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11111211
Darwin 4 21111212
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 3 11111211
Canberra 2 01001201
Hobart 3 11102201
Casey(Ant) 9 34331212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0112 2000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jan 8 Quiet to unsettled. An isolated active period
likely.
23 Jan 6 Quiet to unsettled
24 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The effects of a coronal hole are expected to increase
activity days one and two.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
23 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
24 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jan 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 45%
10-22 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 45%
06, 12-17 and 20-22 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
01, 11-22 UT. No data from Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
01-07, 11-16 UT at Brisbane, depressions to 20% 06-09
UT at Sydney and 01, 08-10 UT at Hobart and
depressions to 30% 13-17 and 20-21 UT at Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
14-17 UT at Macquarie Is. and depressions to 20% 02-03,
09-20 UT at Mawson.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jan 20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
23 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
24 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 21 January
and is current for interval 22-24 January. Occasional seasonal
sporadic E may degrade communications.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 437 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 56100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list