[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 21 10:31:26 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Region 1147 (N24E09) was the source of a number of
sub-flares over the period. There is the slight possibility of a
C-class event from this region. ACE data show the north-south IMF
ranged between +/-4 nT with the solar wind decreasing from 470 to
420 km/s. Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly
disturbed on days two and three due to the effects of a coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 21232121
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 6 21122222
Canberra 4 10132111
Hobart 5 11232111
Casey(Ant) 8 44432131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1222 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 5 Quiet
22 Jan 8 Quiet to unsettled. An isolated active period
likely.
23 Jan 6 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The effects of a coronal hole are expected to increase
activity days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
22 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
23 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 25-40% depressions
11-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed 15-40% 00-21 UT then near predicted monthly
values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 20-40% depressions
17-21 UT. No data for Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
00-06 at Brisbane, Canberra, Norfolk Is. and Sydney.
Depressions to 20% 20-23 UT at Brisbane, to 35% 11-21
UT at Norfolk Is. and to 30% 15-21 UT at Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
00-08, 14-18 UT at Macquarie Is. and 10-14, 19-20 UT
at Mawson.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
22 Jan 20 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
23 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 18 January
and is current for interval 19-21 January. Occasional seasonal
sporadic E may degrade communications.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 494 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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