[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 20 10:30:36 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Region 1147 (N25E22) appears stable. There is the slight
possibility of a C-class flare from this region. ACE data show
the north-south IMF ranged between +/-5 nT with the solar wind
increasing to peak at ~540 km/s around 12 UT before declining
to ~470 km/s due to the effects of the coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 32232222
Darwin 8 31232222
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 8 22232222
Canberra 7 22232212
Hobart 7 22232211
Casey(Ant) 16 45443223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2010 0102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 5 Quiet
21 Jan 5 Quiet
22 Jan 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
21 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
22 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
11-12 and 21-23 UT. No data 13-20 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
00-06 and 19-23 UT. Blanketing sporadic E 02 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Depressions to 35% 18-21 UT. No data for Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
mostly between 01-07 and 17-21 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
mostly 09-17 and 21 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
21 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
22 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 18 January
and is current for interval 19-21 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 60400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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