[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 19 10:30:10 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Region 1147 (N26E37) has increased in area and spot
count and produced a number of sub-flare events. There is the
slight chance of C-class events. SOHO and STEREO images show
a CME event around 0430 UT which is not Earth directed. ACE data
show the solar wind became slightly disturbed after 15 UT in
response to the effects of the coronal hole. The north-south
IMF ranged between +4 and -5 nT and the solar wind increased
slightly to 460 km/s. Solar wind parameters are expected to settle
today with undisturbed conditions expected for the remainder
of the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22211122
Darwin 6 22211222
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 6 22212122
Canberra 3 21200012
Hobart 3 21200111
Casey(Ant) 8 34321122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2211 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 5 Quiet
20 Jan 5 Quiet
21 Jan 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Poor-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
20 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
21 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
11-13 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed 15% with depressions to 50% 00-01 UT and
depressions to 35% 02-06, 12-17 and 20-23 UT. Sporadic
E observed 03-05 and spread F 14-16 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values at Darwin with
depressions to 45% 14-21 UT. Sporadic E observed 21-22
UT. No data for Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
02-06, 18-19 UT at Brisbane, 00-07 at Norfolk Is.,
depressions to 25% 00-07, 12-19 UT at Canberra, 01-06,
13-14 UT at Sydney and 00-08, 17-18 UT at Hobart.
Occasional sporadic E and night spread F observed.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
17-19 UT at Casey and to 20% 02-03, 12-13 UT at Mawson.
No data for Macquarie Is. 04-21 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
20 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
21 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 18 January
and is current for interval 19-21 January. Occasional seasonal
sporadic E may degrade communications. Ionospheric depressions
are likely due to the current low background solar flux output.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 483 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 92200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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