[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 18 10:31:43 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 84/26
COMMENT: Region 1147 (N25E52) produced a number of sub-flares
while region 1148 (S28W32) was numbered. There is the chance
of C-class events. ACE data shows the north-south IMF component
ranged between +4 to -5 nT while the wind speed ranged between
430 and 520 km/s. Solar wind parameters are expected to be mostly
undisturbed over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22222112
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 5 22112212
Canberra 3 12211001
Hobart 3 12211001
Casey(Ant) 8 44432222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 5 Quiet
19 Jan 5 Quiet
20 Jan 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
19 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
20 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
08-10, 12-21 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
00-01, 04-05 and 20 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
07-21 UT at Darwin. No data for Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
02-07, 10-17 UT at Brisbane, 02-05, 10-15 UT at
Canberra, 11-18 UT at Hobart, 01-09, 18-21 UT at
Norfolk Is. and 10-15 UT at Sydney.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 35%
14-17 UT at Macquarie Is., depressions to 20% 03-06,
18 UT at Mawson.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
19 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
20 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 17 January
and is current for interval 17-18 January. Occasional seasonal
sporadic E may degrade communications. Low solar flux output
is probably the cause of ionospheric depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 95200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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