[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 23 10:30:21 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Region 1149 (N17W19) produced a C2.4 flare at 0828 UT
and a number of sub-flares while region 1147 (N24W22) was quiet.
Further C-class flares are possible from 1149. The Earth directed
CME of the 21 may impact around 28th Jan. STEREO images show
another CME, Earth directed, around 0700 UT. The ACE data show
that the expected disturbance did not occur, with the north-south
IMF ranging between +4/-4 nT and the solar wind ranging from
370 to 420 km/s. Solar wind parameters are expected to become
slightly disturbed on day three due to CME effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22212211
Darwin 6 22212212
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 5 22112212
Canberra 2 11101110
Hobart 3 11202210
Casey(Ant) 7 34312121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0000 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 5 Quiet
24 Jan 5 Quiet
25 Jan 6 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The expected effects of a coronal hole did not occur.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Poor-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
24 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
25 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
10-18 UT and to 40% 19-22 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Depressions 20-40% 00-04 UT. No data 05-21 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
00-01, 08-10, 14-15, 18-21 UT. No data from
Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
01-05, 09-19 UT at Brisbane, 01-05, 08, 11-16 UT at
Norfolk Is. and 21 UT at Perth. Depressions to 20%
04-12, 13-16 UT at Canberra, 04-05, 10-16 UT at Sydney,
and 05-08, 13-15 UT at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
24 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
25 Jan 15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 21 January
and is current for interval 22-24 January. Occasional seasonal
sporadic E may degrade communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 65000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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