[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 9 10:34:30 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 7 January.
Spot groups 11139(S29W88), 11140(N33W37), 11142(S14W59) and
11143(S23E01) were observed by Learmonth Solar Observatory on
08 January, no significant flares are expected from these regions.
The solar wind speed ranged from 590 to 660 km/s over the last 24
hours due to continued coronal hole influence. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field remained between +/-4nT. Expect
the solar wind speed to be elevated today, 9 January, and to
return to near normal levels during the UT day, 10 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 22243222
Darwin 8 21233222
Learmonth 9 22233222
Canberra 9 22233222
Hobart 10 22243222
Casey(Ant) 22 4--53333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 4222 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jan 6 Quiet
11 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled levels observed in the Australin
region with Unsettled to Active levels at higher latitudes. Expect
this trend to continue on 09 January and a return to mostly Quiet
conditions on 10-11 January as the solar wind speed returns to
near normal levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jan 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jan 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Jan 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Jan 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor depressions in the lower latitudes are likely
to continue particularly during local night time hours, otherwise
expect near predicted monthly MUF values for the Australian region.
Mild depressions observed at High latitudes and is likely to continue
for the next two days. Sporadic-E observed in the Australian and
Antarctic regions, particularly during the local day time hours,
expect this trend to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 551 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 181000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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