[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 January 11

Sat Jan 8 10:33:51 EST 2011

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan:  Very Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan:  86/29

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jan             09 Jan             10 Jan
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    86/29              86/29              84/26

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 7 January. 
Spot Groups 11143(S23E20) and 11140(N35W17) were reported by 
Holloman Solar Observatory at 07/1731UT, no significant flares 
are expected from these regions. The solar wind speed continued 
to rise due to coronal hole moving into geoeffective location. 
Over the last 24 hours the solar wind increased from 450 to just 
over 600 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field returned to +/-4nT shortly after the beginning of the UT 
day 7 January, after dipping to near -15nT for several hours. 
Expect the high spead solar wind speed to be elevated for the 
next two days and a return to near normal levels on 10 January. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 07 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   42223233
      Darwin               9   32222223
      Townsville          11   423221--
      Canberra            10   42223222
      Hobart              10   42223222
      Casey(Ant)          24   5--43343

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   1100 0115     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Jan     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: IMF Bz turned strongly southwards near -15nT late in 
UT day, 06 January, inducing Unsettled to Active levels of geomagnetic
activity in the Australian region and Active to Minor Storm levels 
in the Antarctic region early in the UT day, 07 January. Once 
Bz returned to near neutral values the geomagnetic activity returned 
to mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels in the Australin region and 
Unsettled to Active at higher latitudes. Expect Mostly Unsettled 
activity for the next two days with isolated cases of Active 
to Minor Storm conditions in the Antarctic region due to high 
speed solar wind effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Jan    37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  37

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jan    30    Near predicted monthly values during local day 
                time hours, with minor depressions in the local 
                night time hours. 
09 Jan    30    Near predicted monthly values during local day 
                time hours, with minor depressions in the local 
                night time hours. 
10 Jan    30    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Minor depressions in the lower latitudes are likely 
to continue during local night time hours, otherwise expect near 
predicted monthly MUF values for the Australian region. Sporadic-E 
is also likely to continue over the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 348 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    35800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"