[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 7 10:47:08 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 86/29 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low in the last 24 hours with
active regions 1139, 1140 and 1142 on the disc. All have relatively
simple magnetic configurations with low probability of major
X-ray flares. The background X-ray flux has declined and only
weak B-flares were observed today. AR1140 grew slightly and became
slightly more complex whilst 1142 decayed slightly. The solar
wind speed rose significantly from 350 to 500 km/sec at 19UT
as the high speed solar wind stream out of the coronal hole became
geoffective. IMF Bz has also turned strongly southwards near
-15nT since 19UT and strong merging appears to be occurring with
the geomagnetic field.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 11111224
Darwin 9 22111234
Townsville 7 11100234
Canberra 5 01000124
Hobart 5 11100124
Casey(Ant) 12 3-322224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0001 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed rose significantly from 350 to 500
km/sec at 19UT as the high speed solar wind stream out of the
coronal hole became geoffective. IMF Bz has also turned strongly
southwards near -15nT since 19UT and strong merging appears to
be occurring with the geomagnetic field with the Australian region
K index reaching 4 near 00UT. Unsettled with sporadic Active
levels are expected at mid and low-latitudes for 7th and 8th
Jan. Polar latitudes will be at least at Active levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
08 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
09 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Geomagnetic disturbance from a coronal hole high-speed
solar wind stream took effect from 19UT 6 Jan. Greatest effect
on the ionosphere at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan 20 about 10% below predicted monthly values
08 Jan 20 about 10% below predicted monthly values
09 Jan 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Frequencies were overall near monthly medians at southern
mid-latitudes but depressed at northern near-equatorial latitudes.
A geomagnetic disturbance from a coronal hole took effect from
19UT and will likely affect the ionosphere during 7-8 Jan, suppressing
MUFs with the effect spreading from polar towards equatorial
regions. Sporadic-E is likely to continue over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 37200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list