[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 6 10:46:45 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low in the last 24 hours with active
regions 1139, 1140, 1141 and 1142 on the disc. All have releatively
simple magnetic configurations with low probability of major
X-ray flares, and only B-flares were observed today. AR1140 increased
slightly in complexity whilst 1141 and 1142 decayed slightly.
AR1141 is close to rotating off the disc and no major upcoming
active regions are observed by STEREO-B spacecraft. There is
a large filament in the southern hemisphere between 1142 and
1139 that may be geoeffective if it rapidly collapses and produces
a shock. The solar wind speed has not yet risen from the high
speed solar wind stream out of the coronal hole, due to be geoffective
in the next 1 day. Bz has been mildly southwards near -5nT since
geomagnetic
field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11111022
Darwin 4 21111122
Townsville 2 10111021
Canberra 2 10011012
Hobart 2 10111012
Casey(Ant) 8 23322122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1211 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jan 6 Quiet
07 Jan 6 Quiet to unsettled
08 Jan 4 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet levels at mid and low
latitudes. Polar latitudes were Quiet to Unsettled due to mild
southward IMF and are continuing to be so at 00UT. Mostly Quiet
conditions may be expected for the first half of 6 Jan before
an upcoming high-speed solar wind speed stream from a coronal
hole due becomes geoeffective and then Unsettled with sporadic
Active levels are expected for 1-2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
08 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
COMMENT: Moderate geomagnetic disturbance from a coronal hole
high-speed solar wind stream due on 6 Jan that will have greatest
effect on the ionosphere at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jan 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jan 20 about 10% below predicted monthly values
07 Jan 20 about 10% below predicted monthly values
08 Jan 20 about 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Frequencies were overall near monthly medians at
mid-latitudes but depressed at northern near-equatorial latitudes.
Strong night spread-F was also observed at near-equatorial latitudes.
Near median MUFs may be expected for the first half of 6 Jan
before mild geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole may suppress
frequencies for 1-2 days. Sporadic-E may continue over the next
few days.-E may continue over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 73400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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