[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 5 10:49:14 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low in the last 24 hours with three
active regions 1140, 1141 and 1142 on the disc. All three have
releatively simple magnetic configurations with low probaility
of major X-ray flares. Both AR1141 and 1142 produced C1 flares
and numerous B flares. The disturbance in solar wind and IMF
calmed from 06UT and Vsw has not yet risen from the coronal hole
due to be geoffective in the next 1-2 days. Bz was mildly southwards
for the rest of the day but only marginal for merging with the
geomagnetic field. There is a large filament in the southern
hemisphere that may be geoeffective if it rapidly collapses and
produces a shock.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22122211
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 6 22122311
Canberra 4 12121211
Hobart 5 22122211
Casey(Ant) 6 ---22221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0000 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 6 Quiet
06 Jan 6 Quiet
07 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet levels at mid and low
latitudes. Polar latitudes were Unsettled to Active due to strong
IMF and solar wind speed fluctuations which have now settled.
Mostly Quiet conditions may be expected for the next 1-2 days
before an upcoming high-speed solar wind speed stream from a
coronal hole due becomes geoeffective and then Unsettled with
sporadic Active levels are expected for 1-2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
07 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
COMMENT: Moderate geomagnetic disturbance from a coronal hole
high-speed solar wind stream due in 1-2 days that will have greatest
effect on th eionosphere at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan 30 near predicted monthly values
06 Jan 20 about 10% below predicted monthly values
07 Jan 20 about 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF frequencies were overall near monthly medians across
the region, albeit with some variations, strong at equatorial
latitudes and some dusk enhancemments at mid-latitudes. Near
median MUFs may be expected for the next 1-2 days before mild
geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole may suppress frequencies
on day 2. Sporadic E-layer activity re-occurred but less extensive
and intense than yesterday, Similar Sporadic-E may continue over
the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 49200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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