[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 4 10:40:27 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 92/37 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at Very Low today despite three
active regions 1140, 1141 and 1142 on the disc. The most significant
is AR1141 producing low-level B-class flares with a stable beta
magnetic configuration. Solar wind and IMF became disturbed from
09UT, possibly associated with the upcoming high-speed solar
wind speed stream from a coronal hole. The IMF north-south
oscillations may induce geomagnetic disturbances. Solar activity is expected
to remain Very Low to Low levels for the next three days with
some possibility of isolated C-class activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 21122222
Darwin 6 21122222
Townsville 5 21022222
Canberra 4 01012222
Hobart 5 11122222
Casey(Ant) 12 33323232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1100 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 3 Quiet
05 Jan 6 Quiet
06 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today. Mostly
Quiet conditions may be expected for the next 3 days. Solar wind
and IMF became disturbed from 09UT, possibly associated with
the upcoming high-speed solar wind speed stream from a coronal
hole due to be geoeffective in 1-2 days. The IMF north-south
oscillations may induce geomagnetic disturbances, particularly
towards higher latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan 32 near predicted monthly values
05 Jan 32 near predicted monthly values
06 Jan 19 about 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF frequencies were overall near monthly medians across
the region, albeit with large variations at near-equatorial latitudes.
Near median MUFs may be expected for the next 2 days before mild
geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole may suppress frequencies
on day 3. There was again extensive Sporadic E-layer activity,
both blanketing F layer and non-blanketing. The strongest blanketing
appeared at higher (southern) latitudes. Similar Sporadic-E may
continue over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 52800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list