[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 3 10:21:45 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan:  91/36

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jan             04 Jan             05 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today. Solar wind speed 
ranged from 320 to 370 km/s over the last 24 hours. The 
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component mostly varied 
between +/- 5nT during most parts of the UT day. Solar activity 
is expected to remain Very Low to Low levels for the next three 
days with some possibility of isolated C-class activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12221222
      Darwin               8   22222223
      Townsville           6   12221222
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Canberra             4   11221112
      Hobart               4   11211211
      Casey(Ant)          11   --431222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0001 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jan     3    Quiet 
04 Jan     3    Quiet 
05 Jan     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today. 
Mostly Quiet conditions may be expected for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Nearly normal HF conditions with minor MUF 
enhancements were observed during the last 24 hours 
on most locations. Nearly similar conditions may be 
expected for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Jan    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  37

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jan    32    near predicted monthly values 
04 Jan    32    near predicted monthly values 
05 Jan    32    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Nearly normal HF conditions were observed today 
with isolated periods of minor enhancements on most locations. 
Nearly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 
days. Periods of partial to complete blanketing by Sporadic 
E-layer were observed at some low and mid latitude locations 
today. Similar effect of Sporadic E-layer may continue to be 
observed over the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    37300 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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