[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 3 10:21:45 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today. Solar wind speed
ranged from 320 to 370 km/s over the last 24 hours. The
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component mostly varied
between +/- 5nT during most parts of the UT day. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low to Low levels for the next three
days with some possibility of isolated C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 12221222
Darwin 8 22222223
Townsville 6 12221222
Learmonth - --------
Canberra 4 11221112
Hobart 4 11211211
Casey(Ant) 11 --431222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0001 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 3 Quiet
04 Jan 3 Quiet
05 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today.
Mostly Quiet conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Nearly normal HF conditions with minor MUF
enhancements were observed during the last 24 hours
on most locations. Nearly similar conditions may be
expected for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan 32 near predicted monthly values
04 Jan 32 near predicted monthly values
05 Jan 32 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Nearly normal HF conditions were observed today
with isolated periods of minor enhancements on most locations.
Nearly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next 3
days. Periods of partial to complete blanketing by Sporadic
E-layer were observed at some low and mid latitude locations
today. Similar effect of Sporadic E-layer may continue to be
observed over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 37300 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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