[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 10 10:48:52 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 9 January.
Spot Spot groups 11139, 11140, 11142, 11143 were joined by new
groups 1144 and 1145. Only AR1140 produced a B-class X-ray flare.
AR1140, 1142 and 1139 will rotate off the disc in the next 24-36
hrs. The solar wind speed is still high from the coronal hole
at 600 km/s. IMF Bz was mostly north in the UT day. Expect Vsw
to return to near normal levels during the UT day, 10 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22122223
Darwin 7 22122223
Learmonth 7 22122223
Canberra 5 12111213
Hobart 6 12121223
Casey(Ant) 15 ---33333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 9 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2212 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jan 7 Quiet
11 Jan 4 Quiet
12 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mainly Quiet levels observed in the Australian region
despite the high solar wind speed and Unsettled conditions late
in the UT day with an IMF Bz southward turning. Unsettled to
Active levels at higher latitudes from high Vsw and IMF Bz
fluctuations.
Expect a return to mostly Quiet conditions on 10-11 January as
the solar wind speed returns to near normal levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
11 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Effect of coronal hole high speed solar wind speed and
geomagnetic disturbance will subside 10-11 Jan UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jan 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jan 25 about 10% below predicted monthly values
11 Jan 30 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jan 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The solar wind speed from the coronal hole is still
high but should return to normal levels over the UT day 10 Jan.
Depressions are still being seen across mid latitudes at night.
Low latitudes are more variable than normal but the amount depends
strongly on location. Expect recovery of ionospheric conditions
and median MUFs by 11 Jan UT day. Strong sporadic-E observed
and expect this to continue for 1-2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 619 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 198000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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