[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 17 10:53:42 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0140UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 0745UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.6 1425UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Moderate with
an M1.6 event from region 1158 at 1425UT and M1.1 event from
region 1161 at 0744UT. A CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery
from 04UT and is associated with a M1.0 class event at 0139UT.
Region 1158 was also the source of numerous C-class events over
the UT day. The solar wind speed decreased gradually over the
UT day from 480km/s at 00UT to be 400km/s at the time of this
report. Bz ranged +/-2nT for most of the UT day. Revised estimate
for the arrival of 15Feb X2.2 full halo CME is for late in the
UT day on the 17Feb to early hours of 18Feb. Solar activity is
expected to be low to moderate over the next 3 days as region
1168 remains relatively unchanged in spot size and magnetic
complexity and region 1161 exhibited steady growth. Chance of
of further x-ray events greater than M5.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21211001
Darwin 4 21211112
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 4 21211102
Canberra 1 11110001
Hobart 2 11210001
Casey(Ant) 5 3--22011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1111 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Feb 27 Active
19 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 15 February
and is current for interval 16-18 February. Geomagnetic conditions
were Quiet over the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
expected for 17Feb. Active conditions expected for 18Feb with
the expected arrival of 15Feb X2.2 CME with possible Minor Storm
periods for high latitudes. Unsettled conditions expected for
19Feb with isolate Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Feb Fair Fair Fair-Poor
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb 45 near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 20 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
19 Feb 20 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over Australian
region during the last 24 hours with enhanced MUFs observed during
local night for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. Normal ionospheric
support for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. MUFs are at
expected to be near predicted monthly values with enhanced conditions
for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions over the next 24 hours. Increased
geomagnetic activity is expected from 18Feb-19Feb with depressed
MUFs for mid to high latitudes of 10%-30% predicited and disturbed
conditions for high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 158000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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