[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 18 10:49:02 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW
**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb
Activity Low to Moderate Low to Moderate Low to Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Low with only
C-class events from region 1158, with the largest being a C6.1
at 0146UT and C2.6 at 1028UT. Region 1158 underwent a slight
decrease in sunspot size but remains magnetically complex as
a beta-gamma-delta class region. Region 1161 increased slightly
in size but was quiet over the UT day. The solar wind speed continued
to decrease from 400km/s at 00UT to be ~340km/s at the time of
this report. Bz ranged between +/-3nT for most of the UT day.
Expected arrival of 15Feb X2.2 full halo CME is within the first
half of the UT day on 18Feb. Solar activity is expected to be
Low to Moderate over the next 3 days with the chance of further
M-class events from region 1158 and slight chance of an x-ray
event greater than M5.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
17/2250UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 21111112
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 4 21111212
Canberra 2 21000121
Hobart 2 11001111
Casey(Ant) 8 23321222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0200 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Feb 27 active
19 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
20 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 17 February
and is current for interval 17-19 February. Geomagnetic conditions
were Quiet over the last 24 hours. Active conditions expected
for 18Feb with possible Minor Storm periods for high to mid latitudes
with the anticipated arrival of 15Feb X2.2 flare CME. Unsettled
to Active conditions expected for 19Feb and Quiet to Unsettled
conditions for 20Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Fair Fair Fair-Poor
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Feb 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Feb 20 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
19 Feb 15 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
20 Feb 30 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over Australian region
during the last 24 hours with periods of enhanced MUFs observed
during local day and night for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions.
Normal ionospheric support for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic
regions. Increased geomagnetic activity is expected for 18Feb-19Feb
with the expected arrival of the 15feb X2.2 flare CME within
the next 12 hours. Possible enhancements for mid to low latitudes
followed by depressed MUFs of 10%-30% expected across the Australian
region and disturbed ionospheric conditins for high latitudes
in the next 24 hours. Depressed conditions expected for 19Feb-20Feb
for mid to high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 67800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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