[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 16 10:40:28 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X2.3 0156UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 103/52 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was High, with
active region (AR)11158 producing a X2.2 class flare at 0156UT.
LASCO C3 imagery shows an associated full halo CME from 0318UT
onwards and an estimated shock speed from the Type II sweep of
800km/s observed from IPS Culgoora solar observatory. ACE EPAM
and GOES-13 data indicates an increase in proton flux from 09UT
to the time of this report. Region 1158 was also the source of
numerous C-class flares throughout the UT day with the largest
being two C4.8 events at 0432UT and 1444UT. The solar wind speed
increased gradually over the UT day from 400km/s at 00UT to a
maximum of ~500km/s between 08UT-12UT before declining to be
450km/s at the time of this report. Bz decreased in magnitude
from a maximum of +18nT between 00UT-02UT to fluctuate between
+/-3nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to increase in the
next 24-48 hours with possible influence from the M6.6 event
on 13Feb and certainly with yesterdays X2.2 x-ray event. Solar
activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next 3 days
with continued activity from active region 1158 and the chance
of further x-ray events greater than M5.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 10 32233222
Darwin 10 32233222
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 11 33233222
Canberra 8 22233212
Hobart 10 22243212
Casey(Ant) 13 4-432222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10 0000 0344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
17 Feb 30 Active to Minor storm
18 Feb 25 active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled over
the last 24 hours. Unsettled to Active conditions expected for
the next 24 hours with possible CME effects from 13Feb M6.6 event.
An increase to Active to Minor Storm conditions with isolated
Major Storm conditions for high latitudes is expected on 17Feb
with the expected arrival of yesterdays X2.2 full halo CME.
Active conditions expected for 18Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Feb Fair Fair Fair-Poor
18 Feb Fair Fair Fair-Poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 45 near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 25 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 25 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed over Australian region
for the last 24 hours with enhanced MUFs observed at IPS Niue
station during local day and night and depressed MUFs of ~15%
for Cocos Is. Normal ionospheric support for Northern AUS and
Southern AUS/NZ regions. Notable short wave fadeout observed
between 0155UT and 0220UT for the east coast of Australia following
the large X2.2 x-ray flare. Isolated depressions for Antarctic
regions. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
with enhanced conditions for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions for
16Feb. Increased geomagnetic activity is expected from 17Feb-18Feb
with depressed MUFs for mid to high latitudes of 10%-30% predicited
and disturbed conditions for high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 313 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 42500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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