[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 8 10:23:28 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Active regions currently on the disc are not likely
to produce any significant flares. Solar wind speed slowly decreased
from ~500km/sec to ~430 km/sec over the last 24 hours as the
coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective position. Expect further
gradual decreases in solar wind speed over the next 1-2 days.
IMF Bz oscillated north-south but only at a moderate strength
less than 5nT, not very geoeffective via merging. Electron flux
at geostationary orbit has remained elevated over the last 24
hours, possibly causing spacecraft charging issues.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22111212
Darwin 5 22112212
Learmonth 4 21012212
Canberra 2 11001111
Hobart 3 11101211
Casey(Ant) 9 33321222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 2333 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 4 Quiet
09 Feb 3 Quiet
10 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The magnetic field has been Quiet at mid and low latitudes
as solar wind speed steadily decreases. High latitudes have been
Quiet to Active due to fluctuating IMF Bz and are becoming Active
again near 00UT due to Bz southwards since 20UT. Expect geomagnetic
conditions to remain at Quiet levels over the next 1-2 days,
in the absence of prolonged (>6 hours) Bz southwards, as the
coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb 10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
09 Feb 10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
10 Feb 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: The regional ionosphere was mostly consistently depressed
below averages at mid latitudes. Near equatorial stations were
highly variable with large enhancements and depressions, probably
the after effect of the weekend geomagnetic disturbance. The
ionosphere should recover from the geomagnetic activity induced
depression over the next 2 days. Recovery is slow due to lower
than usual EUV ionising radiation from modest solar active regions.
Sporadic-E occurred across the region and this is likely to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 540 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 112000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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