[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 9 10:40:00 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 88/32
COMMENT: AR1153 has expanded, providing several B-class and one
C-class flare. Four new active regions AR1154-57 were numbered
and are stable and magnetically simple, unlikely to significantly
flare. Solar wind speed slowly decreased from ~440km/sec to relatively
average ~400 km/sec over the last 24 hours as the coronal hole
rotates out of geoeffective position. Expect further gradual
decreases in solar wind speed over the next day. IMF Bz was mildly
southwards 01-10UT and since 18UT, merging with the geomagnetic
field. Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit have remained elevated
for the third straight day, possibly causing spacecraft charging
issues.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22110112
Darwin 5 22121112
Learmonth 4 21120112
Canberra 1 12000001
Hobart 2 22010001
Casey(Ant) 5 ---21122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 5 Quiet
10 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The magnetic field has been mostly Quiet at mid and
low latitudes as solar wind speed steadily decreases. High latitudes
had Active periods near 06UT and continuing since 18UT due to
IMF Bz southwards. Expect geomagnetic conditions to remain at
Quiet levels at mid and low latitudes over the next 3 days, in
the absence of prolonged (>6 hours) Bz southwards, with possible
Unsettled conditions on 10th Feb (UT) from a weak recurrent coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
10 Feb 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
11 Feb 10 about 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The regional ionosphere was mostly near average levels
at mid latitudes, recovered from the geomagnetic disturbance,
and enhanced at northern latitude daytime.Near equatorial stations
were highly variable with large enhancements, still the after-effect
of the weekend geomagnetic disturbance. The mid-latitude ionosphere
has recovered from the geomagnetic activity induced depression.
Recovery has been helped by increased EUV ionising radiation
from AR1153 and several new small regions. Sporadic-E occurred
across the region and this is likely to continue. MUFs may be
slightly suppressed on the 10-11th Feb (UT) as a weak recurrent
coronal hole increases geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 59200 K Bz: 0 nT
Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit have remained elevated for the third
straight day, possibly causing spacecraft charging issues.
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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