[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 7 10:46:20 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Active regions on the disc are not likely to produce
any significant flares at this time. Solar wind speed slowly
decreased from ~600km/sec to ~530 km/sec over the last 24 hours
as the coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective position. Expect
further gradual decreases in solar wind speed over the next 2-3
days. IMF Bz oscillated north-south with significant periods
southwards but only at a moderate strength less than 5nT. Electron
flux at geostationary orbit has been rising steadily over the
last 24 hours, particularly energies above 2MeV, possibly causing
spacecraft charging issues.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 22343322
Darwin 8 22232222
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 11 22243322
Canberra 11 22343311
Hobart 12 22343312
Casey(Ant) 17 3--43333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 4332 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 6 Quiet
08 Feb 4 Quiet
09 Feb 3 Quiet
COMMENT: After a geomagnetic disturbance early in the UT day
from a solar wind speed and IMF abrupt change, the magnetic field
has been trending down to Quiet conditions as solar wind speed
steadily decreases. Expect geomagnetic conditions to gradually
settle to Quiet levels over the next 2-3 days as the coronal
hole rotates out of geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Feb 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
09 Feb 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect continuing mild depressions across the Australiasian
region for the next two days as the ionosphere recovers from
coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity, and lower than usual
EUV ionising radiation from solar active regions. Occasional
sporadic-E occurred across the region and this is likely to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 600 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 143000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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