[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 4 10:36:59 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Active regions 11150 and 11152 are not expected to produce
any significant flares in the next 24 hours. Solar wind speed
decreased from 430 to 310 km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
+/-2nT. Weak CME observed 30 January and Earthward directed is
expected to arrive today, 04 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 11110111
Darwin 3 11111112
Learmonth 1 10010101
Canberra 0 00100000
Hobart 1 01110000
Casey(Ant) 7 23321121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 3111 2110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Feb 4 Quiet
06 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions with isolated cases
of Active to Minor Storm levels at high latitudes due to possible
CME impact, today 04 February. Otherwise, expect mostly Quiet
conditions for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
05 Feb 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
06 Feb 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 1 February
and is current for interval 1-4 February. Mostly normal HF conditions
in the Northern Australian region with mild depressions observed
in the South Australian and Antarctic regions, particularly the
local day time hours. Ocassional sporadic E was also present
in the Australian region, this trend is likely to continue. Expect
a return to near normal HF conditions with mild depressions at
mid to low latitudes due to lower then predicted solar activity
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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