[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 3 10:34:05 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Active region 11150 is not expected to produce any
significant flares in the next 24 hours. Solar wind speed decreased
from 520 to 420 km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +4/-6nT. Expect
solar wind speed to remain slightly elevated for the next three
days due to recurrent coronal hole. Weak CME observed 30 January
and Earthward directed is expected to arrive today, 03 February
or possibly 04 February. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery showed a halo
CME, first noted on 01/2124UT C2 image. STEREO imagery indicates
the CME is on the backside of the Sun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22122221
Darwin 6 22122222
Learmonth 6 22122221
Canberra 4 21122210
Hobart 5 21222210
Casey(Ant) 9 3--32221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2121 1431
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions with isolated cases
of Active to Minor Storm levels at mid to high latitudes due to
an increase in solar wind speed over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
04 Feb 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
05 Feb 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 1 February
and is current for interval 1-4 February. Mostly normal HF conditions
in the Northern Australian region with mild depressions observed
in the South Australian and Antarctic regions. Ocassional sporadic
E was also present. Expect this trend to continue for the next
three days due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 141000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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