[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 2 10:45:31 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Active region 11150 is not expected to produce any
significant flares in the next 24 hours. Solar wind speed increased
from 300 to 540 km/s over the last 24 hours due to recurrent coronal
hole. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between +7 and -12 nT, dipping below -10nT for approximately 1 hour
around 04-05UT. Expect an elevated solar wind speed for the next
three days due to coronal hole. Weak CME observed 30 January and
Earthward directed may arrive 03-04 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 13 33422332
Darwin 11 33322322
Learmonth 13 33322333
Canberra 10 33312322
Hobart 11 23411332
Casey(Ant) 20 --5-2333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 0000 0332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 12 Unsettled
03 Feb 12 Unsettled
04 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect Unsettled conditions at low to mid latitudes
with isolated cases of Active to Minor Storm levels at high latitudes
due to an increase in solar wind speed over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 40
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
03 Feb 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
04 Feb 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed in
the Aus/NZ regions today along with the presence of sporadic
E-layers at times. Expect this trend to continue for the next
three days with mild depressions at high to mid latitudes due
to increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 272 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 13700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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