[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 1 10:49:13 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Active region 1150 is not expected to produce any significant
flares in the next 24 hours. Solar wind speed varied between 250 and
340 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was
mostly positive with a brief period where it went negative to -9nT
between 1700 and 1800UT. Also noted a sudden increase in solar wind
speed and density at approximately 1500 UT. Expect a increase in the
solar wind speed on 2 February due to a recurrent coronal hole becoming
geoeffective. LASCO C2 imagery shows a large CME on the west limb of
the sun first visible on the 31/1636UT image. It is not expected to be
geoeffective. A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at
1505UT on 31 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22211222
Darwin 9 22211333
Learmonth 9 22221333
Canberra 5 12210222
Hobart 5 12210222
Casey(Ant) 8 23321122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 6 Quiet
02 Feb 12 Unsettled
03 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at Quiet
levels for 01 February. Activity is expected to increase the
following two days due to an increase in solar wind speed induced
by a recurrent coronal hole. Expect Unsettled conditions at low
to mid latitudes with isolated cases of Active to Minor Storm
levels at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
02 Feb 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
03 Feb 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed in
the Aus/NZ regions today along with the presence of sporadic
E-layers at times. Expect this trend to continue for the next
three days with additional minor depressions at high latitudes
on 02 and 03 February due to increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 276 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 16100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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