[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 5 10:46:43 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Active region 11152 is presently producing B-class x-ray
flares and may produce a C-class flare in the next 24 hours.
Active regions 11150 and 11153 are not likely to produce any
significant flares at this time. Solar wind speed increased
from 320 to 600 km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +10/-20nT.
Bz went negative at approximately 1600UT and has remained mostly
southerly since that time, reaching a peak near -20nT at 1845UT.
A weak shock was detected by ACE at 0130UT, mostly likely caused
by the impact of CME occurring on 30 January. Increase in solar
wind speed was also due to recurrent coronal hole becoming
geoeffective.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
04/2155UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 16 33332244
Darwin 15 33332343
Learmonth 16 32233344
Canberra 16 22332245
Hobart 16 22332254
Casey(Ant) 19 44-32244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0010 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 20 Active
06 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 4 February and
is current for interval 4-5 February. Expect Quiet to Unsettled
conditions with isolated cases of Active to Minor Storm levels
at mid to high latitudes due to CME impact, today 05 February.
For the following two days expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
06 Feb 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
07 Feb 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mild depressions noted in Australian/NZ and Antarctic
regions with the exception of minor enhancements in the northern
Australian region during local night time hours. Expect mild
depressions for the next two days due to an increase in geomagnetic
activity, particularly at mid to high latitudes. Ocassional sporadic
E was also present in the Australian region, this trend is likely
to continue.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 43400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list