[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 11 issued 2329 UT on 15 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 16 10:30:01 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 124/77 124/77 124/77
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
activity reduced to two C-class flares from beyond the west limb.
A CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 15/0402, is not expected
to be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to be low for
the next 3 days. The solar wind speed hovered around 370km/s
until ~18UT when there was a drop in speed to ~350km/s accompanied
by a step up in density. The IMF Bz varied between +/-3nT during
the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 21100011
Darwin 5 22212112
Townsville 5 22211121
Learmonth 2 21100002
Norfolk Island 3 21100022
Camden 2 21200011
Canberra 1 11100001
Hobart 2 21100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 12 34421122
Mawson 4 22201111
Davis 11 33322232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Dec 3 Quiet
17 Dec 3 Quiet
18 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet during the last 24 hours. Some unsettled to active periods
were observed in Antarctica. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Dec 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Dec 135 About 20% above predicted monthly values
17 Dec 130 About 20% above predicted monthly values
18 Dec 120 About 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were observed over much of the Australian
region during the last 24 hours. Normal HF conditions with MUF
enhancements are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 80500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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