[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 11 issued 2330 UT on 14 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 15 10:30:26 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 128/81 126/79
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
several C-class flares from region 1367 (now beyond the west
limb), the largest being a C7 at 14/1459. Three CMEs, first observed
in LASCO C2 imagery at 14/0401 and 14/1512 and in STEREO-A imagery
at 14/1139, are not expected to be geoeffective. Solar activity
is expected to be low for the next 3 days. Solar wind speed declined
from ~450km/s to ~400km/s. The IMF Bz varied between -4nT and
+3nT during the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 5 22221112
Townsville 5 22211121
Learmonth 3 21110112
Norfolk Island 3 12100112
Camden 3 22111011
Canberra 2 12100001
Hobart 4 22111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 21000000
Casey 14 34431123
Mawson 11 44221122
Davis 13 34332232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1011 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 3 Quiet
16 Dec 3 Quiet
17 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet during the last 24 hours. Some unsettled to active periods
were observed in Antarctica. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
over 15-17 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec 130 About 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Dec 130 About 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Dec 120 About 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal MUFs with periods of some enhancements
were observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions
with MUF enhancements are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 69500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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