[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 11 issued 2336 UT on 16 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 17 10:36:10 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 122/75 122/75 122/75
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with only B-class events. Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed declined gradually
during the UT day from ~350km/s to ~300km/s. The IMF Bz was neutral.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Darwin 5 22221112
Townsville 4 12211121
Learmonth 1 11000001
Norfolk Island 1 21000010
Camden 1 10000011
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 22211111
Mawson 2 22001001
Davis 6 22222121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0010 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 2 Quiet
18 Dec 3 Quiet
19 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were quiet during the last 24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec 130 About 20% above predicted monthly values
18 Dec 120 About 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Dec 120 About 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were observed over most of the Australian
region during the last 24 hours. Normal HF conditions with MUF
enhancements are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 39000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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