[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 11 issued 2323 UT on 09 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 10 10:23:09 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity Very low to Low Very low to Low Very low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. One
C3 flare was observed from region 1374(S17E54) at 1320UT.
Solar wind speed mostly varied between 290 km/s and 350 km/s
during the day. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5nT
for most parts of the UT day today. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low to Low for the next 3 days. A high speed solar
wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole may strengthen solar
wind stream from 11 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 11222212
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 21122112
Norfolk_Island 5 12212212
Camden 4 01222112
Canberra 3 01212101
Hobart 6 21222212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Dec :
Macquarie_Island 3 00113201
Casey 12 33432222
Mawson 8 22223311
Davis 12 23333322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 1 Quiet
11 Dec 6 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Dec 6 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
Quiet during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may
be expected on 10 December. Minor enhancements in geomagnetic
activity to possibly some Unsettled periods may be possible on
the 11 and 12 December due to the possible effect of a recurrent
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of MUF
enhancements were observed during the last 24 hours. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec 155
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec 155 About 30% above predicted monthly values
11 Dec 150 About 25% above predicted monthly values
12 Dec 150 About 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were observed today with periods of
sporadic E-layers at low and some mid latitude locations.
Mostly Normal HF conditions with about 25 to 30% enhancements
in MUFs may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 25500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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