[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 December 11 issued 2332 UT on 08 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 9 10:32:23 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours.
Two C1 flares were observed during this period. Solar
wind speed mostly varied between 290 km/s and 320 km/s
during the day. The Bz component of IMF stayed close to
the normal value (between +2/-3nT) for most parts of the
UT day today, staying on the negative side for relatively
longer periods of time. Solar activity is expected to be
Very Low to Low for the next 3 days. A high speed solar
wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole may strengthen
solar wind stream from 11 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Darwin 4 21112112
Townsville 5 22122121
Learmonth 3 21011111
Norfolk Island 3 11111112
Camden 3 21111011
Canberra 1 11001001
Hobart 2 11111101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 10001000
Casey 7 32221122
Mawson 6 20011242
Davis 12 31222252
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0001 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 1 Quiet
10 Dec 1 Quiet
11 Dec 6 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region
were Quiet during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected for the next 2 days. Minor
enhancements in geomagnetic activity to possibly some
Unsettled periods may be possible on the third day
(11 December) due to the possible effect of a recurrent
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of MUF
enhancements were observed during the last 24 hours. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec 155
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec 155 About 30% above predicted monthly values
10 Dec 155 About 30% above predicted monthly values
11 Dec 150 About 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were observed today with periods of
sporadic E-layers at low and some mid latitude locations.
Mostly Normal HF conditions with about 25 to 30% enhancements
in MUFs may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 293 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 20000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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