[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 December 11 issued 2316 UT on 07 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 8 10:16:50 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Two
C1 flare were observed from region 1364(N18W30). Solar wind
speed mostly varied between 290 km/s and 320 km/s during the
day. The Bz component of IMF stayed close to the normal value
(between +3/-3nT) for most parts of the UT day today. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11100012
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 5 12211122
Learmonth 2 21000002
Norfolk Island 2 11100112
Camden 1 00100012
Canberra 1 00100011
Hobart 2 11100002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 8 33321112
Mawson 3 12100013
Davis 7 22222231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec :
Darwin 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Dec 3 Quiet
09 Dec 3 Quiet
10 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region
were Quiet during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of MUF
enhancements were observed during the last 24 hours. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Dec 164
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Dec 155 About 30% above predicted monthly values
09 Dec 155 About 30% above predicted monthly values
10 Dec 155 About 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were observed today with periods of
sporadic E-layers at low and some mid latitude locations.
Normal HF conditions with about 30% enhancements in MUFs
may be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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