[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 December 11 issued 2326 UT on 06 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 7 10:26:39 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours.
One C-6 flare was observed from region 1363(S22W20) at
2325UT/05 December. Ace solar wind data was not available
for the whole day. The limited data indicates the solar
wind speed variations from 340 km/s down to 290 km/s during
the day. The Bz component of IMF stayed close to the normal
value (between 0/-3nT) for the period for which the data
are available. Solar activity is expected to be Low for
the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11001111
Darwin 5 22112212
Townsville 5 22112221
Learmonth 3 21002111
Norfolk Island 2 11001112
Camden 2 11101111
Canberra 1 10001001
Hobart 1 11001101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 7 23311121
Mawson 2 10001122
Davis 8 22222232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 3 Quiet
08 Dec 3 Quiet
09 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
Quiet during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may
be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of MUF
enhancements were observed during the last 24 hours. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec 153
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec 145 About 25% above predicted monthly values
08 Dec 145 About 25% above predicted monthly values
09 Dec 145 About 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were observed today with periods of
strong sporadic E-layers at low and some mid latitude locations.
Normal HF conditions with about 25% enhancements in MUFs may
be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 35200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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