[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 December 11 issued 2329 UT on 05 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 6 10:29:57 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the past day. Several
C-class flares were observed during this period- the largest
being a C4.7 at 1518UT from region 1363(S21W09). Three CMEs
were also observed yesterday. None of them seem to be earthward
directed. Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 410
to 310 km/s during the last 24 hours and the Bz component of
IMF mostly stayed close (between +/-3nT) to the normal value
through this period. Solar activity is expected to be Low for
the next 3 days, with some possibility of isolated M class
activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11101111
Darwin 5 22111212
Townsville 6 12222221
Learmonth 3 10001132
Norfolk Island 2 11-00111
Camden 2 01101111
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 11100101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 10 33321123
Mawson 16 32211155
Davis 12 33322224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2112 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 5 Quiet
07 Dec 5 Quiet
08 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region
were mostly Quiet during the last 24 hours. Isolated Unsettled
periods were observed in Antarctic stations during this period.
Conditions are expected to be Quiet for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of MUF
enhancements were observed on 05 December (UT day). Nearly
similar HF conditions may expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec 140 About 20% above predicted monthly values
07 Dec 140 About 20% above predicted monthly values
08 Dec 140 About 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were observed today with periods of
strong sporadic E-layers at low and some mid latitude locations.
Normal HF conditions with about 20% enhancements in MUFs may
be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 454 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 62500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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