[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 11 issued 2340 UT on 10 Dec 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 11 10:40:41 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 140/94


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Dec             12 Dec             13 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. One C1 
flare was observed from region 1375(N09E39) at 0631UT. Solar 
wind speed gradually increased from 350 km/s to nearly 500 km/s 
during the first half of the UT day and then decreased to 350 
km/s by the time of this report around 2330UT. The Bz component 
of IMF varied between +5 and -9nT during the UT day today. Solar 
activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   23321132
      Darwin               7   22321222
      Townsville          11   23322233
      Learmonth            9   33321222
      Norfolk_Island       6   22221122
      Camden              10   23321133
      Canberra             8   23320032
      Hobart              10   23321133
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec :
      Macquarie_Island     8   22331122
      Casey               22   45532233
      Mawson              25   44432255
      Davis               24   44543234
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   ???? ????     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Dec     5    Quiet to unsettled 
12 Dec     3    Quiet 
13 Dec     2    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
at Quiet to Unsettled levels during the last 24 hours. Nearly 
similar conditions may be expected on 11 December. Mostly Quiet 
Geomagnetic conditions may be expected for 12 and 13 December. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of MUF 
enhancements were observed during the last 24 hours. Nearly 
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Dec   111

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Dec   140    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
12 Dec   145    about 25% above predicted monthly values 
13 Dec   145    about 25% above predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were observed today with periods of 
sporadic E-layers at low and some mid latitude locations. 
Mostly Normal HF conditions with about 20 to 25% enhancements 
in MUFs may be expected for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:    ??
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:   ??
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV:  ??
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background:  ??

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 309 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    46000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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