[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 25 09:32:31 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
1271 was the source of the largest event, being a C1.1 flare
at 1633UT. Region 1271 remained relatively unchanged over the
last 24 hours with no significant change in other regions currently
on disk. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 580km/s at
00UT to be 480km/s at the time of this report. Bz, the north
south component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated
between +/-4nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to
be Low to Very Low for the next 3 days with further C-class flare
activity possible from region 1271 and the slight chance of isolated
M-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 22112202
Darwin 5 31102202
Townsville 7 22212322
Learmonth 6 32112202
Sydney 4 21112202
Canberra 2 10002201
Gnangara 6 32112202
Casey(Ant) 8 33222212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug :
Darwin 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 180 (Severe storm)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3011 2243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 5 Quiet
26 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Increased
geomagnetic activity is expected from 26Aug due to anticipated
arrival of a high speed solar wind stream of a recurrent coronal
hole with conditions ranging from Quiet to Active for 26Aug-27Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Fair
27 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours
for the Australian/NZ region. Depressed MUFs of ~20% observed
over Equatorial regions during local day and night. Northern
Australian regions also experienced depressed MUFs during local
day and night. IPS Niue station an exception with enhanced MUFs
during local night. Near predicted monthly values for Southern
AUS/NZ regions with slightly enhanced conditions during local
night and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. Mild MUF
depressions are expected at times over the next 3 days for Northern
Australian to Equatorial regions and near predicted monthly values
expected for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Increased geomagnetic activity
expected on 26Aug-27Aug, resulting in reduced ionospheric support
for high to mid latitudes for 27Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 136000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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