[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 26 09:45:40 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1271 (N18,W55) decayed further over the last 24 hours
and was the source of a B4.8 flare at 0811UT and a B8.9 at 2203UT.
Newly emerged regions were also the source of B-class activity
with region 1277 (N17,E66) producing a B9.5 flare at 0702UT and
region 1279 (N13,E75) the source of a B9.6 flare at 1652UT. Solar
wind speed gradually decreased from 480km/s at 00UT to be ~420km/s
at the time of this report. Bz, the north south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +/-4nT over
the UT day with some some prolonged southward periods in the
latter half of the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Low
to Very Low for the next 3 days with C-class flare activity possible
and the slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 21112221
Darwin 5 21112222
Townsville 8 12223322
Learmonth 4 21112220
Sydney 5 -1112321
Canberra 3 10002221
Gnangara 6 21112231
Casey(Ant) 10 33322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug :
Darwin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 3101 2202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 5 Quiet
27 Aug 12 Unsettled
28 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Increased
geomagnetic activity is expected from 27Aug due to anticipated
arrival of a high speed solar wind stream of a recurrent coronal
hole with conditions ranging from Quiet to Unsettled and isolated
Active periods for 27Aug-28Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Aug Normal Normal-fair Poor
28 Aug Normal Normal-fair Poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Aug 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs of 10%-30% observed over Equatorial regions
during local day and night. Northern Australian regions also
experienced depressed MUFs during local day. Near predicted monthly
values for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed conditions for
Antarctic regions. Mild MUF depressions are expected at times
over the next 24 hours for Northern Australian to Equatorial
regions and near predicted monthly values expected for Southern
AUS/NZ regions. Increased geomagnetic activity expected on
27Aug-28Aug, resulting in reduced ionospheric support for high
to mid latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 520 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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