[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 24 09:36:32 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1271 was the source of the largest event, being a B5.7
flare at 0125UT. Region 1271 decayed in the last 24 hours while
region 1272 also showed signs of decline. Solar wind speed was
350km/s between 00UT-08UT and then gradually increased to be
550km/s at the time of this report. The period of increase in
solar wind speed was accompanied by a decline in solar wind density,
indicating possible coronal hole effects. Bz, the north south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between
+/-5nT for the majority of the UT day. Solar activity is expected
to be Low to Very Low for the next 3 days with further C-class
flare activity possible from region 1271 and the slight chance
of isolated M-class flare.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1263 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 24 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 21222332
Darwin 7 21222232
Townsville 8 22222232
Learmonth 8 21222332
Sydney 7 11222322
Canberra 4 10111222
Gnangara 8 21221332
Casey(Ant) 9 223-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug :
Darwin 44 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2020 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Aug 5 Quiet
26 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for
the next 24 hours with mostly Quiet conditions for 25Aug. Increased
geomagnetic activity is expected from 26Aug due to anticipated
arrival of a high speed solar wind stream for a recurrent geoeffective
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Aug 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs of ~20% observed over Equatorial regions
during local day. Northern Australian regions experienced depressed
MUFs during local day and night. Near predicted monthly values
for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions. Mild MUF depressions are expected at times over the
next 3 days for Northern Australia to Equatorial regions and
near predicted monthly values expected for Southern AUS/NZ regions.
Increased geomagnetic activity on 26Aug possible, resulting in
reduced ionospheric support for high to mid latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 77600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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