[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 21 09:51:53 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 104/53 105/54
COMMENT: A C2.9 flare was observed at 2259UT otherwise solar
activity was at Very Low levels during 20 August. Further C-class
flare activity is possible over the next few days with the small
chance of isolated M-class flare activity. Solar wind speeds
remained below 440 km/s over the past 24 hours. Analysis of STEREO
satellite data suggests that solar wind speeds are expected to
increase again during 21 August to approximately 500-600 km/s
due to an anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream. Solar wind
speeds are then expected to decline slowly from these values
during 22-23 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 12111122
Darwin 5 22211122
Townsville 5 12212122
Learmonth 4 12120122
Sydney 5 22111113
Canberra 1 02000011
Gnangara 4 12011122
Casey(Ant) 7 23311022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Aug 12 Mostly Quiet with the chance of Unsettled levels
and isolated Active periods later in the UT day.
22 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly Quiet
levels for 21 August with the chance of an small increase in
activity later in the UT day due to an anticipated coronal hole
solar wind stream. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels are expected
for 22-23 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at low latitudes at times
during the past 24 hours. Slight depressions are expected at
times over the next 24 hours for low-equatorial latitudes otherwise
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
Some periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions were observed
during the past 24 hours which may have degraded HF conditions
at times. Further isolated periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E
are expected over the next 24 hours which may result in degraded
HF conditions at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Aug 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Aug 50 Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
22 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed over northern Australian
regions at times during the past 24 hours. Slight depressions
are expected at times over the next 24 hours primarily for northern
Australian to equatorial regions otherwise MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Some periods of Spread-F
and Sporadic-E conditions were observed during the past 24 hours
which may have degraded HF conditions at times. Further isolated
periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E are expected over the next
24 hours which may result in degraded HF conditions at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 48900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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