[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 22 09:51:05 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 103/52 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: A C1 flare was observed from region 1272 otherwise solar
activity was at Very Low levels during 21 August. Further C-class
flare activity is possible over the next few days with the small
chance of isolated M-class flare activity. Solar wind speeds
increased slightly over the past 24 hours from below 350 km/s
up to approximately 450 km/s. This increase may be the result
of a coronal hole solar wind stream. Solar wind speeds may increase
further during 22 August under the influence of this coronal
hole wind stream. Solar wind speeds are then expected to decline
slowly during 23-24 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11101011
Darwin 2 11101012
Townsville 5 12212121
Learmonth 1 01000011
Sydney 1 11100001
Canberra 0 00000000
Gnangara 2 11111011
Casey(Ant) 6 23311011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1100 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Aug 10 Unsettled to quiet with the chance of isolated
Active periods.
23 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly Unsettled
to Quiet levels for 22 August with the chance of a small increase
in activity early in the UT day due to a coronal hole solar wind
stream. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels are expected for 23-24
August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at low-equatorial latitudes
at times during the past 24 hours. Mild depressions are expected
at times over the next 24 hours primarily for low-equatorial
latitudes otherwise MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values. Some periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions
were observed during the past 24 hours which may have degraded
HF conditions at times. Further isolated periods of Spread-F
and Sporadic-E are expected over the next 24 hours which may
result in degraded HF conditions at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Aug 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Aug 55 Mostly near predicted monthly values with 10-20%
depressions for far northern Australian regions.
23 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed over northern Australian
regions at times during the past 24 hours. Mild depressions are
expected at times over the next 24 hours primarily for far northern
Australian to equatorial regions otherwise MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Some periods of Spread-F
and Sporadic-E conditions were observed during the past 24 hours
which may have degraded HF conditions at times. Further isolated
periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E are expected over the next
24 hours which may result in degraded HF conditions at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 56600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list