[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 20 09:49:47 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: No C-class flare activity was observed during the past
24 hours. C-class flare activity is still possible over the next
few days with the small chance of isolated M-class flare activity
from region 1271 and returning regions. Solar wind speeds remained
below 400 km/s over the past 24 hours and are expected to remain
around these levels for 20 August. Analysis of STEREO satellite
data suggests that solar wind speeds are expected to increase
again during 21 August to approximately 500-600 km/s due to an
anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Darwin 2 21100002
Townsville 5 12211122
Learmonth 1 11000001
Sydney 1 01100001
Canberra 0 00000000
Gnangara 2 11110101
Casey(Ant) 3 22200101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1000 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Aug 5 Quiet
21 Aug 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the chance of
Active periods.
22 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly Quiet
levels for 20 August with a slight increase in activity during
21 August due to an anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream.
Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels are expected for 22 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Fair-normal Normal Normal
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at low-equatorial latitudes
at times during the past 24 hours. Slight depressions are expected
at times over the next 24 hours for low-equatorial latitudes
otherwise MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values. Periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions were observed
during the past 24 hours which may have degraded HF conditions
at times. Further periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E are expected
over the next 24 hours which may result in degraded HF conditions
at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Aug 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Aug 50 Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at equatorial regions
at times during the past 24 hours with slight depressions observed
at times over northern Australian regions. Slight depressions
are expected at times over the next 24 hours primarily for northern
Australian to equatorial regions otherwise MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Periods of Spread-F
and Sporadic-E conditions were observed during the past 24 hours
which may have degraded HF conditions at times. Further periods
of Spread-F and Sporadic-E are expected over the next 24 hours
which may result in degraded HF conditions at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 69000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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