[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 10 09:47:35 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.5 0355UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
X7.0 0805UT probable all Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity Moderate to high Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours. AR 1263
(N18W78) produced several short duration flares, the largest
being an an M2.5 event at 0354UT and an X6.9 event at 0805UT.
The latter had associated Type II and IV radio bursts. Following
each of these two flares, a west directed CME was observed in
LASCO and STEREO imagery. Initial propagation speed estimates
are ~1500km/s and ~1600km/s, respectively. Electron fluxes were
elevated immediately following the flares and high energy proton
flux was elevated following the later, larger flare. A glancing
blow from these CMEs is possible, especially the later one. Further
activity is likely from AR 1263 before it rotates off the disc
later today. The solar wind speed decreased from 650 to 550 km/s
over the UT day with the effects of the south-west coronal hole
abating. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
remained mostly neutral.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1260 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 19 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 23320011
Darwin 7 23321112
Townsville 6 23320012
Learmonth 7 23420011
Canberra 3 22220000
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug :
Darwin 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 114 (Major storm)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3323 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
11 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is decreasing as the effects of the
south-west coronal hole abate. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was mostly neutral during the UT day. The regional
geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet with Unsettled with an Active
period from 05-08UT. Unsettled to Active conditions are possible
on 10Aug due to glancing blows from CMEs observed on 09Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : Began at 0910UT 09/08, Ended at 1835UT 09/08
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
possible on 10-11Aug due to enhancements in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
11 Aug 40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Aug 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Regional MUF's showed minor to moderate depressions
across the region. Brief disturbances possible S Aus/NZ/Antarctic
regions late 10Aug or early 11Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 550 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 204000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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