[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 11 09:49:52 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours.
Four C-class flares were observed today, the largest being
a C6.1 flare from region 1263(N17W93). A Type II radio busrt
was observed at 1607UT. This Type II event may be associated
to a material emission from north-east limb around the same
time. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 550 to
470 km/s over the UT day with the effects of the south-west
coronal hole abating. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field remained mostly between +/-3nT during the day.
Solar activity is expected to stay at Low levels with some
possibility of going up to Moderate levels during the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Mostly quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 12222111
Darwin 5 12222112
Townsville 4 -2221111
Learmonth 4 12222010
Canberra 4 11321010
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Darwin 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 17 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9 3332 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 10 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled, isolated Active periods
possible.
12 Aug 6 Quiet
13 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 10 August
and is current for interval 10-11 August. Mostly quiet
geomagnetic conditions were observed today. Mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions with some possibility of active periods
may be expected on 11 August due to possible effects from
previously observed CME. Mostly quiet conditions may be expected
for the following two days thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : Began at 0910UT 09/08, Ended at 1835UT 09/08
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions possible on 11August due to expected enhancements
in geomagnetic activity levels on this day. Mostly normal HF
conditions may be expected on 12 and 13 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Aug 40 near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on
9 August and is current for interval 10-11 August. Regional
MUF's showed minor to moderate depressions across the region.
Brief disturbances possible, especially on mid and high
latitude locations on 11 August due to an expected rise in
geomagnetic activity levels on this day. HF conditions are
expected to stay mostly at normal levels on 12 and 13 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 589 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 197000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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