[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 9 09:48:39 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.5 1810UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: AR 1263 (N18W68) produced a short-duration M3 class
flare at 1810UT with associated Type II radio sweep. Following
this a fast W-directed CME with limited angular spread was observed
in LASCO C3 imagery. Initial propagation speed estimates are
1000-2000 km/s. Energetic electron fluxes were elevated immediately
following the flare. An impulsive C6 level X-ray flare was observed
at 2230. Culgoora H-alpha imagery suggests AR 1263 as the source.
A C4 level flare was observed at 2240UT. Region 1263 maintains
potential for M class flare activity. Region 1266 (N19W12) grew
overnight. Solar wind speed increased from 500 to 600 km/s over
the UT day as the coronal hole wind stream persists. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly neutral
with a period of sustained mild Southward bias during the mid-part
of the UT day.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1260 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 19 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 12234111
Darwin 8 22224111
Townsville 8 12224112
Learmonth 11 22235101
Canberra 4 01033100
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 3221 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated under the influence
of a coronal hole wind stream. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was mostly neutral with a sustained period of
Southward bias during the mid-part of the UT day. The regional
geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet with Unsettled to Active intervals
from 09-15UT. Expect mostly Quiet conditions with isolated Unsettled
periods next three days as the coronal hole wind stream declines.
Chance of brief disturbance late day one to early day two if
the fast CME observed after 18UT on Aug 08 impacts the Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
possible days one and two due to enhancements in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Variable enhancements/depressions during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
10 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
11 Aug 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Regional MUF's showed minor to moderate depressions
across the region. Sporadic-E observed Norfolk Is. 02-04UT. Continuing
poor ionospheric support Antarctic region. Antarctic conditions
should improve as energetic ion levels decline over the next
few days. Variable MUF's possible Equatorial/N Aus regions. Brief
disturbances possible S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions late day one
to early day two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 534 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 44400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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