[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 28 09:37:10 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Apr 29 Apr 30 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Low levels today. New region
1201(N16E40) produced a C2.0 class flare at 0301UT with an associated
Type II radio burst. Solar wind speed fluctuated between 360-400 km/s
up to arround 17 UT then decayed gradually to 340 km/s for the
rest of the UT day. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +4/-3nT. Solar
activity is expected to remain low over the next 3 days. Solar
wind speed may strengthen due to coronal hole effects on the
30 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11110111
Darwin 4 22111112
Learmonth 3 21110111
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 11000100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 0010 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Apr 5 Quiet
29 Apr 9 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the previous day
and is expected to remain Quiet on the 28th of April.Unsettled
conditions are expected for the 29th and 30th of April due to
the coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Apr 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Apr 55 near predicted monthly values
29 Apr 50 near predicted monthly values
30 Apr 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the AUS/NZ
region during the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected
for 28 April. Possible degradations for high latitude locations
on 29 and 30 April due to the possibility of increased geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 64300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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