[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 27 09:32:48 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Very Low over the last 48 hours.
The solar wind speed is fluctuating between 380-420 km/s, with
Bz from -2 to +2 nT. Solar activity is expected to remain Very
Low over the next 2 days. There is the possibility of a C-class
flare from region 1195 (S17W25). A coronal hole high speed wind
stream is expected to return late on 29 Apr, resulting in increased
observed solar wind speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 4 21111112
Learmonth 2 21111001
Canberra 0 00110000
Hobart 1 00110001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 6 2310 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Apr 5 Quiet
28 Apr 5 Quiet
29 Apr 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Predominantly Quiet conditions are expected over the
next 2 days. Unsettled conditions might occur from late on 29
Apr with the return of a coronal high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Apr 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Apr 55 near predicted monthly values
28 Apr 55 near predicted monthly values
29 Apr 50 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 486 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 136000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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