[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 26 09:49:15 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Analysis of STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery suggests
recent CME activity are backside events and not earthward directed.
Analysis of STEREO B solar wind parameters suggests that a recurrent
coronal hole solar wind stream is due to impact the Earth during
30 April. Solar wind speeds are expected to be predominantly
low for 26-28 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 5 22111212
Learmonth 4 22111111
Canberra 1 12000001
Hobart 1 12000001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1101 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Apr 6 Quiet
27 Apr 5 Quiet
28 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Predominantly quiet conditions are expected over the
next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Apr 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 70% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed up
to 15% at times.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Apr 65 5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
27 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 84700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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