[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 25 09:52:50 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 112/63
COMMENT: Visible solar regions have been predominantly quiet
and stable during 24 April. Solar wind speeds increased slightly
during the latter half of 24 April. Solar wind speeds are expected
to be predominantly low for the rest of the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 22121322
Darwin 7 22122322
Townsville 7 222222--
Learmonth 7 22021323
Canberra 3 11011212
Hobart 4 11011312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2103 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Apr 6 Quiet
27 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Predominantly quiet conditions are expected over the
next few days with some unsettled periods during 25 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Apr 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
27 Apr 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days. Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions were observed at times
at some Australian region stations during 24 April which may
have degraded HF COMMS conditions. Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions
are possible at times during the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 32900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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