[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 24 09:45:47 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar region 1195 has decreased in area during the past
24 hours but still has the possibility of futher C-class flare
activity with the small chance of M-class flares. Solar wind
speeds have remained below 420 km/s over the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speeds are expected to remain low for the rest of the forecast
period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 21121111
Darwin 5 22111212
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 4 21021211
Canberra 2 21020000
Hobart 3 20131100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 3202 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Apr 5 Quiet
25 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Predominantly quiet conditions are expected over the
next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days. There is the small chance of SWFs over the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Apr 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% at times during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced up
to 20% at times.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few
days. There is the small chance of SWFs over the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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