[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 11
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 23 09:55:17 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 0459UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 1554UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Region 1195 produced several C-class flares and two
M1-flares during 22 April. Futher C-class flares are expected
with the chance of M-class flares. Solar wind speeds continued
to decline slowly during 22 April and are presently around 420
km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to decline and
remain low for the rest of the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Darwin 6 22222122
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 2221----
Canberra 2 21111000
Hobart 4 22121101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1211 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Apr 5 Quiet
24 Apr 5 Quiet
25 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Predominantly quiet conditions are expected over the
next few days as coronal hole effects continue to abate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Sporadic-E and Spread-F conditions were observed at
times during 22 April which may have degraded HF conditions.
Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few days.
Sporadic-E and Spread-F conditions are possible at times over
the next few days. There is the chance of SWFs over the next
24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Apr 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% at times during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 15%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 22 April
and is current for interval 22-23 April (SWFs) . Sporadic-E and
Spread-F conditions were observed at times during 22 April which
may have degraded HF conditions. Mostly normal conditions are
expected for the next few days. Sporadic-E and Spread-F conditions
are possible at times over the next few days. There is the chance
of SWFs over the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 91400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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